Editorial / Opinion GRASPING EARTH2 The Visionary Column

How many users will Earth2 need for Success?

This is the continued series of the Philosophical / Visionary column on E2Economist
Please read previous post in this series ->here<-

Earth2 is building their metaverse platform brick by brick, code by code everyday having different teams focusing on various task from Game mechanics, UI/UX, Game design, Digital assets & objects, Technical infrastructure & Backend performance and more. The team also focus on different tracks in terms of “phases”. Some developers giving more attention to phase 2 developments and others solely working on phase 3, all behind the curtains. Definitions of phase 1, 2 and 3 have never been clearly expressed by E2 as their roadmap is confidential to any outsiders.   

The vision still unknown, as discussed in the previous article “Is it a Game? an E-Commerce? Social Media? Internet 2.0?

Creativity in abundance

2nd of July 2021, a big announcement came to light from Earth2 mentioning the inclusion and importance of enabling user-generated content into their metaverse.

Extract from the Earth 2 Anouncement:

Therefore, we are excited to announce Earth 2 will soon begin creating an official API suite, which we hope will then be followed by an SDK (Editor note: Software Development Kit). This will allow us to welcome creativity, ideas, games, and more from creators all over the world. The creation of an API suite can only become a reality after better stability in commercial, technical, and support aspects are achieved. This is something we have worked hard to build over the past 6 months – and we feel we are very close to achieving. We expect many interesting ideas and opportunities to become available to our Earth 2 users and aim to have the initial Earth 2 API suite ready by late 2021. We eagerly welcome community engagement on API requests for the first version. The ideas and possibilities are limitless and we cannot wait to see what people create and plug into Earth 2!

A direction within Earth2 roadmap that supports the platform’s longevity, attractiveness and entertainment.

Critical Mass?!

Nonetheless, the outmost important number which will determine the degree of success is the amount of active users.

For any digital platform it is vital to first reach a so called critical mass of users. Critical mass is a concept from physics where: “The smallest mass of a fissionable material that will sustain a nuclear chain reaction at a constant level.” In social media platforms it can be roughly translated to how many users that is required in order to have a stable or increasing user base long term. This can be achieved via many ways such as “mouth-2-mouth” advertising a great product / content, general advertising, media coverage, influencers, etc.

How much critical mass in terms of users is required for Earth2 is unknown. Have it already been achieved by the 300 000 investors already arrived? Possibly. Let’s revisit this question later in this article. First we there is a more important question to talk about:

How many users will Earth2 need for Success?

The degree of success, as mentioned earlier, is not measured if critical mass has been achieved or not but rather the active user base. But, how much could the active user base be for Earth2?

Let’s get some perspective of other social media platforms and games. Below we created a table of top 20 for both. Social Media platforms measured in Monthly Active users and Games measured in Total Player Count.

Social Media PlatformYears ExistedActive Users (Monthly)        GameYears ExistedTotal Player Count
Facebook172.8 billionPUBG Battlegrounds41 billion
Youtube162.3 billionCrossFire141 billion
WhatsApp122 billionDungeon Fighter Online16700 million
Messenger101.3 billionSpeed Drifters13700 million
Instagram111.3 billionMinecraft10600 million
WeChat101.2 billionPac-Man Doolde11505 million
TikTok5732 millionCandy Crush Saga9500 million
Douyin5600 millionAmong Us3500 million
QQ22595 millionMicrosoft Solitaire31400 million
Telegram8550 millionMini World6400 million
Snapchat10528 millionCrazyracing Kartrider17380 million
Weibo12521 millionFortnite4350 million
Qzone16517 millionFantasy Westward Journey20310 million
Kuaishou10481 millionRunescape20280 million
Pinterest12459 millionRules of Survival4230 million
Reddit16430 millionRoblox15202 million
Twitter15396 millionDragon Nest11200 million
Quora12300 millionMapleStory18180 million
Skype17300 millionTetris37177 million
Baidu Tieba17300 millionGTA V8140 million
Source: Wikipedia

Conclusion

One distinct difference we quickly see between games and social media platforms is that games have a much lower user count than social media platforms.

Skype which is on 19th place of social media platforms has over a 100 times higher active user base then PUBG Battlegrounds peaking in 2017 of 3.6 million. Skype even has 6 times higher active users than when the World of Warcraft peaked in late 2017 of 46 million active users.  

Hence the questions we visited in the last article: “Is it a Game? an E-Commerce? Social Media? Internet 2.0?” becomes very important to understand before knowing where to place Earth2 in terms of success by active users.

However, if earth 2 at least beats World of Warcraft and start going into the bottom of the Social Media Platform list. E.i. if we place Earth 2 as top in the Games list but bottom in the social media list it would mean that:

Earth 2 need to grow from its currently 300 000 (thousands) user up to 50 000 000 (million) users! An increase of 166 times from current levels!

Will 300 000 be the critical mass to lift the game to those levels or are more needed to start the catalyst once the platform is released? Time will tell.

Nevertheless, it is safe to say that the 300 000 investors will be a drop in the ocean. The very few to own land. The very few pioneers.

In the next article we will reflect on the question: Who will visit Earth2?

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