All our analysis and findings related to how Earth2 Assets work behind the curtains, when published in articles, are stored in our “Investor Library” section for each area respectively. This is to help the Investor to easier understand his/hers investment decision and impacts on the various assets.
Jewels where first released July the 2nd and has since then continued to develop into new features, tiers, types. A development that will continue. However, it all starts with the 7 “BASE” Jewels and from these new Jewels can be crafted.
ONLY TIER1 TILES IS ELIGIBLE TO PRODUCE JEWELS. TIER2 TILES CANNOT YIELD JEWELS
Thus the question is:
What is the probability to acquire certain colors
During our analysis that you will read about in this article we collected over 1 000 days of logging Jewel yield. This was done over several accounts and different months. For starters, the statistics revealed that over time it is equal chance to get any type of Base Jewel yielded. The color is not impacted by geographical location. Hence, total random yield and an:
How does Jewel Yield Performance work?
We have been though several if not all possible factors being potential candidates of affecting the Jewel Yield Performance. Different yield in different countries ? Or Class? or correlating to number of properties or perhaps tiles ?
We quickly found a “GOLDEN AVERAGE” that could be used in the majority of cases.
JEWEL YIELD = 0,002 x Total Tiles on Account
However, this was purely a simple average model that fits often but it was noted that it became less and less accurate for smaller accounts having smaller tiles per property.
Thus, we gathered as much data possible.
We will not disclose all math behind it as these articles aim to keep it simple for the average reader and focus on the displaying the findings.
With this amount of Data we managed to crack a much better fitting model which we can visualize in this graph!
Here is a VERY CLOSE aproximation of the JEWEL YIELD PERFORMANCE!
What this is telling us is that:
Probability to Yield Jewels: Property size Yield difference
During the analysis we noted that 750 properties could spawn up to 3 Jewels on a single day. Versus a single tile property displayed a maximum of 1 Jewel. By analyzing the data we could observe the tile boundaries of max amount of jewels per day.
- 1-250 = Max 1 Jewel
Probability from 3% to 33% depending on tiles 1 tile = 3% 250 = 33%.
- 251-500 = Max 2 Jewels
1st jewel = 33% from above. Second Jewel 1% – 33% (depending on tiles)
- 501-750 = Max 3 Jewels
2 Jewels = 33% from above. Third Jewel 1%- 33% (depending on tiles)
Hence a 750 would have a probability of 33% for all 3 potential Jewels.
When are Jewels Spawning?
With the large data set we can also view the Spawn date and exact time for each Jewel. This is NOT the CLAIM time but rather the ACTUAL Spawn time.
The answer seems to be between:
2:00 AM and 4:AM GMT (UK, LONDON).
Which translates to
6 PM – 11 PM US (Total Time Range – East to West)
SOUTH KOREA: 11 AM – 1 PM
AUSTRALIA: 10 AM – 3 PM (Total Time Range – East to West)
Is the Yield: Stable or Volatile per Day?
Why are we experiencing a fluctuation in Jewels per day? And how much is this volatility ?
Since we now have the model of Jewel Yield we can simulate 2 extreme cases BOTH yielding 10 Jewels in Average/day and show their volatility.
Case 1 being 230 Single tiles In 95% of the times (days) the average of 10 will be +/- 6 Jewels (4-16 Jewels)
Case 2 Being 10x 750 Tiles In 95% of the times (days) the average of 10 will be +/- 5 Jewels (5-15 Jewels)
Thus portfolios with larger properties will have less volatility.
Is Jewel Yield decreasing over time?
We cannot see any indication that this statement would be true. Early on when Jewels were introduced the Yield had teethering issues / bugs and Earth2 Team had to rectify several issues Though since several months now it we can confirm that the Yield is currently not decreasing over time.
Achieving Brilliant Jewels
The way to achieve a Brilliant Jewel is by upgrading Jewels to luminous and with a certain chance / probability the jewel will instead achieve a Brilliant status.
This is a particular difficult probability to identify. We will be continuing running accounts on the test site to log upgrades per jewel as much as possible. However, thanks to several large investors we have recieved intel about their experience when upgrading luminous and achieving brilliant. The investors have all spent over 100 000 ESSENCE each upgrading over 4000 Jewels.
We can estimate that the probability average seems to be between 0.5% and 0.1% chance to achieve a Brilliant Jewel!
Thus the range is somewhere in the area of 1-in-200 Jewels to 1-in-1000 Jewels.
Our South Korean friends have made an enormous trial on a test account resulting in the quite stable performance of 0.2% Chance.
Thus it is:
However, we are still very uncertain if achieving brilliant is different between Tier 1 vs Tier 2 Jewels or among the various colors.
Even though larger properties can spawn up to 3 Jewels on the same day it is clear that 1 tile properties is more effective in terms of gaining the highest yield.
Example: 1 Single Tile Property Yield on average 1 Jewel every 33 Days. (Once a Month) One 750 Tile Property Yield on average 1 Jewel every day or 30:ish Jewels a month. (Once a Day) By acquiring 33 Single tile properties it would on average yield 1 Jewel per day, 30:ish Jewels a month Which is the same performance as a 750 tile property. A Brilliant Strategy? Since also Single tile properties outshine 750's in ESSENCE production due to the boost potential. (A 750 carry 12 slots vs 750 single tiles carry 750 slots) It is quite sure that opting for a single tile strategy would also be the least expensive way in order to achieve BRILLIANT Jewels since they are cost efficient in both Jewel Yield and ESSENCE yield. This is most likely an balance that Earth2 consciously thought about as they promote small players in being effcient with some ingame assets, but not all! This is only the beginning. We believe that it is reasonable to think that Resources and Contruction might very well benefit the larger properties more than singles. Even though the 33 Single tile and the 750 Tile scenarios yield 30 Jewels a month on average the two option would differ slightly in volatility. Portfolios with larger properties will be less volatile then portfolios with small properties.
Nonetheless, an easy average of 500 tiles per jewel can be applied if a user wants to estimate an accounts Jewel tield. (With smaller accounts under 5000 tiles it may be a larger error)
Lastly, Spawn time occurs within the same time range every day, mentioned above and gaining a specific color has en equaly random chance. The volatility noticed is not due to the TIME of the day an investor claim it is merely mechanics behind the scenes.
In the few coming day we are launching:
in our Simulation tool section!
Credit to all 28 Contributors for this Analysis!!!
A special THANK YOU to
M.M., RobinHood and Mihaj
who contributed massively in this analysis!
A whooping 28 people participated in this project contributing with their Jewel data, brainpower and lots more ! All contributing to increase the knowledge of the community as a whole to bring elevated discussions to the table in the social media platforms!